Change is coming: Preparing for 15 minute SDAC market trading

The European power market continues to evolve, and industry players are once again looking ahead to the next major change. As early as September this year, the Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) market is expected to shift from hourly to 15 minute trading intervals.

This significant update, which must be seen as more than a technical change, will present new challenges. Challenges like the need for greater precision and rapid decision-making. But it will also create opportunities for those who are ready to take them.

A response to a more weather-driven market

This change is driven by the growing share of renewables in Europe’s power production mix. Sources like PV and wind continue to increase across the continent and, while that’s good news for the ongoing energy transition, it does create problems.

These renewable, weather-dependent sources are by their very nature inherently intermittent. This unpredictability and lack of a consistent frequency puts pressure on production and makes it harder to keep our energy systems balanced.

For years, hourly trading intervals were sufficient. Market participants could rely on predictable baseload generation and stable price patterns. That’s no longer the case. As coal and gas are phased out, and renewables take centre stage, we need a market design that reflects this new reality. Hence, the move to 15 minute granularity.

Planning ahead

This shift increases complexity across the board. As trading becomes more granular, forecasting needs to be clearer, with data arriving faster and processed at speed. The challenge is not simply about updating models, it is about rethinking the very foundations of how market insight is delivered.

At Insight by Volue, we’ve been preparing for this shift for over two years. Our SpotEx model already delivers a robust, pan-European short-term forecast for power prices and cross-border flows. But we knew early on that adapting the existing model wouldn’t be enough. That’s why we’re launching SpotEx15, a new 15 minute model made for the new market design.

Powered by upgraded AI-based fundamental models for wind and solar power, SpotEx15 supports more granular bidding, delivers more accurate price signals, and enables faster reactions. It ensures customers are prepared for the new trading rhythm from day one.

Meeting the shift in tempo

Of course, the impact of this change will differ depending on your role. Power traders will need to adjust their bidding strategies. Producers need more dynamic generation planning. Retailers and large consumers will face increased forecasting complexity. But one thing is clear. Everyone must prepare for a faster, more dynamic market.

That is the key point here: this is not just a regulatory change, but a shift in tempo. The market is moving faster, and those who move with it, who prepare early, understand the fundamentals, and are ready to act, will have the upper hand.

Risk and opportunity

This is a big shift for the European power sector, and like all big changes, it comes with both risk and opportunity. Our goal is to help our customers navigate both with better insight, better tools, and the confidence to make decisions in a market that never stands still. By working together, we can turn complexity into opportunity and continue driving meaningful progress towards a more resilient, efficient, and sustainable energy future.